While the International Criminal Court has not actually announced yet that it is going to issue an arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, it is expected any day now. This announcement is both a big opportunity and a big danger for the people of Sudan depending on how we, and the rest of the world, use it.

The chief danger lies in the possibility that President al-Bashir will find himself backed into a corner with no reason to work for peace. In this case, he may try to kick out humanitarian aid workers who are saving millions of lives in Darfur, increase attacks on his enemies, the rebel groups, and kick out the joint United Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission (UNAMID). Additionally, such a response would endanger the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and South that President al-Bashir signed in 2005. The resumption of war between the North and South would be a devastating increase of violence and suffering for the Sudanese people. Also, President al-Bashir might be tempted to cancel the elections that are meant to happen later this year.

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The past few weeks have seen some devastating violence in South Darfur around a city called Muhajeriya. Some 30,000 people fled their homes as the largest Darfur rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), battled with government soldiers and members of another rebel group called the Sudanese Liberation Movement – Minnawi. To cut a complicated story short, the rebel group JEM took a town from a rival rebel group which was allied with the government and then endured a series of government bombings and retaliations which killed dozens of civilians. Some of you may have seen the recent post about Canada’s condemnation of this violence.

Now it seems like the violence has halted momentarily with the rebels withdrawing from the town and the government allowing UN officials and aid agencies access. Even more promising, the JEM rebels have announced that they may start preliminary peace talks this week in Qatar.

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Due to a technical problem, our listserv software has been nonfunctional for the past five weeks. This has meant that we weren’t able to send out the January Digest via the listserv and we won’t be able to send out the February Digest via the listserv either, unfortunately. Please share the Digest (attached) with anyone who might need it. The executive summary is below. Apologies again for the inconvenience – we are working to resolve the issue.

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